48%: Obama will lose in 2012
We put this question to the American people: Do you believe that Barack Obama will be re-elected as president in 2012?
The answer: By a 48%-41%, Americans believe Obama will lose his re-election bid. Eleven percent did not have an opinion on the question.
Not surprisingly, Republicans by a 78%-12% predicted Obama’s defeat, while Democrats by a 75%-15% margin guessed Obama would be re-elected. The difference-maker: Independent voters predicted 47%-39% that Obama would lose.
Blacks (74%-21%) and Hispanics (43%-35%) believed Obama would be re-elected, while whites by a 55%-35% margin guessed Obama would be defeated.
Poll Position’s scientific telephone survey of 1,386 registered voters nationwide was conducted November 8, 2011 and has a margin of error of ±3%.
What do you think? Vote in our online companion poll and comment below.
The online companion poll in which you can vote provides unscientific results, meaning it’s a tally of participating Poll Position users, not a nationally representative sampling.
Poll Position is committed to transparency and upholding the highest professional standards in its polling, explaining why we provide you with the crosstabs of our scientific polls. Crosstabs provide a breakdown of survey participants by age, race, gender, and political affiliation. Here are the crosstabs for this poll: Poll Position crosstabs – Obama re-election.
You can learn more about our polling methodology here.